US Open 2026: The Second Round Is Where Predictions Learn to Be Silent

Rain fell over Flushing Meadows, reshuffling the cards of the 2026 US Open. Novak Djokovic had already exited in the first round, but something else stood out: on September 1, 14 first-round matches and 32 second-round matches were scheduled on the same day. Some players had to step onto court with less recovery time than usual. In the second round, four matches deserve particular attention from an analytical point of view. First, Ben Shelton plays Hubert Hurkacz. Shelton started slowly against Tallon Griekspoor but remains dangerous with his serve and aggressive baseline game. Hurkacz is back in the top 50, has a huge serve, and prefers to keep points short. However, Hurkacz has struggled with injuries, so Shelton may prevail in five sets. Second, Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Karen Khachanov. Auger-Aliassime dropped a set in the first round but served 17 aces. He needs to improve his second serve and efficiency on break points. Khachanov reached the semifinals in New York in 2026, and even though his recent form has been inconsistent, his power could trouble the Canadian. The prediction is Khachanov in five sets. Third, Carlos Alcaraz meets Jaime Faria. Alcaraz looked sharp against Roman Safiullin, but Faria won a five-set battle and enters with confidence. Alcaraz may lack match practice, but he should have enough quality to win in five sets. Finally, Gael Monfils, in his farewell season, faces Learner Tien. Monfils impressed with his brilliance at 40 years old, but Tien, seeded 14th and playing at home, looked fresh and focused. Tien is expected to win in five sets. The biggest insight is that predicting all four matches to go five sets is improbable from a statistical perspective. Yet these matches are genuinely difficult to call. The second round is where secrets get revealed, where champions can stumble and young players can dream. In the end, data offers only a map; the players will write their own stories on the court.