Sabalenka starts US Open 2026: 32 winners, three-peat and No. 1 concerns

Aryna Sabalenka enters the 2026 US Open as the two-time defending champion, but behind her first-round win over Camila Osorio lies a multi-layered picture. 32 winners in two sets – an impressive number, yet it raises the question: has the Belarusian truly returned to peak form after a turbulent second half of the season? The opening match on Arthur Ashe saw Sabalenka dominate completely. She recorded 32 winners, averaging 1.78 winners per game, a rate within the elite group on the WTA Tour. The tactical highlights were an unreturnable backhand on the decisive break point in the fourth game, and an unreturnable serve to close the match. A drop shot that caused Osorio's racket to fly out of her hand also suggested Sabalenka is expanding her arsenal. But the 32-winner figure needs context: Osorio is ranked outside the top 50 and committed five double faults in the first set alone. The pressure from Sabalenka – deep return position, flat ball trajectory – disrupted her opponent's rhythm, but that says little about Sabalenka's ability against top-10 players. Her unforced error count was not reported, but if her winner-to-error ratio is only 1:1, the explosiveness could become a double-edged sword. The larger context: Sabalenka is defending 2,000 points from last year's title while fending off three players who could overtake her No. 1 ranking at this tournament. Since March, she has not reached a single final – a rare slump for a world No. 1. The Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami) points are aging, and the US Open is the first points-defense cliff. Without a deep run, she will lose the top spot. History provides motivation: only Serena Williams and Chris Evert have won three straight US Open titles. Sabalenka stands on the verge of joining that legendary group. But this very pressure can be a double-edged sword. Her subdued celebration after the win – not overly emotional, no explosion of joy – could indicate professional focus, or it could be the caution of a player fighting her own demons. In the second round, Sabalenka faces Polina Iatcenko, a manageable opponent to continue building rhythm. The real test comes in the second week, where she could meet top seeds. If she maintains her high winner rate and minimizes unforced errors, a third consecutive title is possible. But if the mental and physical weaknesses of the second half reappear, the three-peat story could crumble on American soil. For a power-based player like Sabalenka, age 27 marks the tail end of the traditional peak window. The championship window is still open, but not for many more years. The 2026 US Open is not just a tournament – it is the intersection of legacy and present, pressure and opportunity. And Sabalenka, with her thunderous winners, is writing her own story.